Fantasy football is a game of strategy, and a crucial aspect of excelling is understanding the multifaceted nature of player evaluation. Beyond just raw talent and statistics, factors such as injuries, aging and opportunity can shape a player’s fantasy potential — and his risk of disappointing.
We sifted through the top 50 or so players on fantasy football draft boards, examining the potential risks associated with each player in those three key categories. Those risk factors can provide valuable insights for fantasy managers as they make critical draft-day decisions.
It’s important to note that the landscape is dynamic and player circumstances can change rapidly. Always refer to the latest news, injury updates and expert opinions before making your draft picks.
Now let’s get into how risk factors could impact the performance of the most important fantasy players. This analysis is based on 12-team, point-per-reception leagues.
Injury risk
An injury can result in either missed games and unpleasant roster choices, or reduced (or less effective) playing time, either way costing you fantasy points. But injuries also reduce a player’s predictability and reliability. Investing in a player with a history of injuries adds the risk of an absence during critical matchups, increasing the importance of investing in backup options.
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Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Average draft position: No. 2 overall in 12-team PPR leagues
His injury history includes an array of significant setbacks. In September 2020, he suffered a Grade 3 high-ankle sprain, sidelining him for six games. Later that season, he incurred an A/C joint sprain in his shoulder, causing him to miss an additional four games, while a late-season thigh glute strain kept him out of another four games.
His injury struggles continued in 2021 when he suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain in September, causing him to miss five games. Later that season, a Grade 2 ankle sprain effectively ended his campaign in November. McCaffrey’s recurring injuries highlight the concerns about his durability, given his dual role as a rusher and receiver. He did, however, suit up for all 17 games last season.
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Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
Average draft position: second-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues
The 30-year-old Adams has a notable history of injuries — including ankle sprains, concussions, knee strains and hamstring issues — but he played in all 17 games last season and in 16 games the year before.
During a Raiders joint practice with the 49ers in early August, Adams suffered a right leg injury after being hit during team drills. Adams left practice with a limp and missed several days of work before returning to the field, but it was a reminder of his injury concerns.
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Average draft position: fourth-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues
A major knee injury ended his rookie season prematurely and impacted his preparation for the 2021 campaign. He’s started 16 games each of the past two seasons, but Burrow’s preparation for the 2023 season has been far from smooth. His history of injuries, including calf concerns this camp, has the potential to affect his availability and performance.
Bengals’ HC Zac Taylor to reporters today on the status of Joe Burrow’s strained calf injury: “The timeline is several weeks from when I said several weeks.”
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 9, 2023Burrow’s mobility and ability to navigate the pocket effectively might be the most compromised, which could affect his fantasy production. Burrow rushed 75 times last season for 257 yards and five touchdowns, all career highs and a significant boost to his overall fantasy numbers.
Age-related concerns
In fantasy football, as in the NFL, aging should be considered when projecting future production. Older players might lose a step, and their durability could be impacted, leading to fewer explosive plays and decreased effectiveness. Fantasy managers need to decide whether a player’s skills are diminishing and whether his role within the offense could be threatened by younger, emerging talent. Here are a few players whose ages could be a concern.
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Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
Average draft position: second-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues
End of carouselHenry’s physical running style has made him a workhorse back and a fantasy stalwart. However, the toll of consistent carries and contact could accelerate the effects of aging. As running backs near the age of 30 — Henry will be 30 in early January — a decline in explosiveness and durability becomes more likely. Fantasy managers should consider the possibility of reduced efficiency and playing time.
We’ve already seen the beginnings of it. Henry’s rushing yards per game has declined from a career high of 126.7 in 2020 to 117.1 in 2021 and 96.1 in 2022.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Average draft position: third-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues
As a wide receiver, Ridley’s aging risks are milder, and he’s still just 28. He was suspended all of last season for betting on NFL games during the 2021 campaign, giving him one less year of wear and tear, and yet he’s still past the historical prime of wide receiver production.
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Plus, Ridley has only topped 900 receiving yards in a season once (2020), and it is possible that campaign, in which he averaged 2.4 yards per route run, was an outlier. He averaged 1.7 yards per route run in his other three seasons.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
Average draft position: fourth-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues
Jones, who will turn 29 in December, faces the same daunting historical trends as Henry. Of the 130 running backs with 1,000 or more carries by age 28 (Jones has 1,035), only 39 managed to achieve a 1,000-yard rushing season after the age of 29. None have done it since Mark Ingram and Carlos Hyde in 2019.
Opportunity risk
Opportunity refers to the chances a player will get to contribute, based on projected roles within the offensive scheme, competition from teammates and involvement in the game plan.
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These are all critical in fantasy football; a player might possess all the talent in the world, but fantasy managers need output and results. Changes in the coaching staff, offensive strategies and roster dynamics can impact a player’s opportunities, as can usage in different formations and red-zone involvement.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
Average draft position: second-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues
Despite the arrival of veteran running back Ezekiel Elliott to the Patriots, Stevenson’s role in New England’s running and passing game appears relatively safe. Stevenson boasts impressive efficiency, while Elliott is coming off a less productive season with a career-low yards per carry average of 3.8.
The primary opportunity risk for Stevenson lies in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Elliott’s presence could lead to a reduction in Stevenson’s chances in these scenarios, potentially impacting his fantasy ceiling. Elliott’s higher efficiency on carries inside the 5-yard line suggests he could be a threat to steal goal-line opportunities and touchdowns.
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Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Average draft position: third-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues
The addition of Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook to the New York Jets’ backfield changes the outlook for Hall, the 36th overall pick in 2022, particularly early in the season.
The Jets are likely to adopt a cautious approach in light of Hall’s ACL injury during his rookie season, aiming to preserve both Hall and Cook’s health over the extended 17-game schedule. This could result in a reduced workload for Hall. Even if he gets the majority of chances, his fantasy output might be tempered, making it essential for fantasy managers to closely monitor the Jets’ usage strategy and Hall’s recovery progress.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans
Average draft position: fourth-round pick in 12-team PPR leagues
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Tennessee’s run-heavy approach and limited passing game limit Hopkins’s fantasy potential. The Titans ran the ball 56 percent of the time on first and second down in all situations last season, the third-highest rate in the NFL; the league average was 48 percent. Tennessee ran the ball half the time with the score within eight points, the sixth-highest run rate in those situations; the league average was 45 percent.
Uncertainty also surrounds the quarterback situation in Tennessee. Ryan Tannehill is the starter — despite being 35 years old and coming off the worst completion rate of his four seasons in Tennessee — with unproven youngsters Malik Willis and Will Levis behind him . In addition, the continued emergence of tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo (32 catches for 450 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie in 2022) could hurt Hopkins’s target share. The combination of a restrained offensive strategy, quarterback uncertainty and competition for targets increases the risk of Hopkins falling short of his draft position.
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